Causal Relation between Macro Economy and Industrial Index Based on Regression Analysis
نویسندگان
چکیده
With the expansion of stock market, investors and capital are increasing step by step, which makes the stock market an increasing impact on the macro-economy. In order to reveal the effect of macro factors on the specified industry’s stock price, a new nonlinear regression model is established with Eviews6.0 software in the paper. We take macro variables as samples which are based on interest rate adjusting (China has adjusted interest for 24 times from 1997 to June 8th, 2012), conducting an in-depth study of the industrial index on the Stock Exchange. The empirical result indicates that the industrial index has a negative correlation with interest rate, PPI, and a positive relation with CPI, industrial value added (IVA) growth rate and international crude oil price.
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